2024-06-04

Ab Ki Baar Naidu-Nitish Sarkar

Unless Amit Shah unleashes another Operation Lotus targeted at luring MPs from allies, opposition and even the independents.

BJP could not emerge as the single largest party despite

being the biggest recipient of the now-banned electoral bonds and other undeclared extorted funds
having the support of Adani, Ambani and other crony capitalists
a godi (servile) media singing Modi's praises
ED/CBI/IT agencies weaponized against opponents
having a conniving Election Commission

Modi is ultimately responsible for this. As Mamata Bannerjee has demanded, Modi should accept moral responsibility and resign. After promising to win more than 400 seats, his alliance could not reach the 300-seat market. No, it is Amit Shah's fault. Modi is only a sock puppet.

For surviving as the leader of a coalition government, Modi should seek wise counsel from Advani, Joshi and Sinha whom he had callously sidelined. Amit Shah has always been a liability for Modi.

Stolen valour of Ram mandir

It was BJP stalwarts like Lal Krishna Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi who contributed most for the establishment of Ram birthplace temple in Ayodhya. However, a jealous Modi asked Advani to stay home so he could hog the limelight when the temple was inaugurated. Justice was served when BJP lost the Ayodhya seat of Faizabad to a Samajwadi Party candidate. History-sheeter extraordinaire, current CM and future Modi-replacement Yogi lost Uttar Pradesh to the INDIA alliance.

In Tamil Nadu, Annamalai takes a mottai

Just as SV Shekar predicted, Amit Shah's pet and Tamil Nadu BJP chief has proved to be a total failure. Shekar's hope Nainar Nagendran also lost. Tamilisai Soundararajan lost once again. She will no doubt seek her governor post again. Tamil Nadu does not need BJP. Good riddance for now.

Crown of thorns for Modi

Even though the NDA alliance has emerged victorious, victory is going to be bittersweet. Modi is going to wear a crown of thorns because he is now forced to form a coalition government. One needs to remember how the CPI-ML gave sleepless nights to the first UPA government led by (Sonia Gandhi and) Manmohan Singh.

Hindutva Voting Machines strategically underperformed

Prior to the 2024 elections, opposition parties had tried to get the EC return to paper ballots instead of the unverifiable electronic voting machines (EVMs) with foreign chips. They had even approached the Supreme Court (SC) who refused to ban EVMs. Afraid that their ability to influence Indian elections be lost forever, foreign powers that can manipulate the chips seemed to have offered the opposition parties a face-saving compromise. They cut BJP down to size without giving the opposition a chance at power. Nobody is happy with the results so the EVMs are safe … for now.

Operation Lotus or Coalition Pressures

If INDIA alliance accepts the verdict, it is also an acceptance of the EVMs. Are they going to spend another five years sitting in the opposition? The INDIA alliance must continue to oppose EVMs and seek a return to paper ballots. They may also try to break the NDA alliance and form a government with the splinters even if it is most likely that BJP will prevail.

The BJP cannot on its own form a government. It has to depend on alliance partners like TDP, JD(U) and even what remains of the Shiv Sena. If they decide to pull the rug under Modi's kursi, his government is sure to fall. Modi is not used to coalition politics so alliance partners are not going to be safe now. Chandrababu Naidu is going to learn a bitter lesson as his MPs are sure to desert him. He thinks he can ally with Modi for his Amravati revival plan but he does not realize that he is a target. Ditto for Nithish Kumar in Bihar. Nobody is safe from Amit Shah's moneybags.

Stockmarket wipes out

I knew that the results will not be good for Modi when the FII herd sold all their stocks before the elections. Yesterday, some stupid FIIs returned to buy stocks again. They believed the exit polls must have got the result right. One of my stocks was vulnerable to a Modi loss — Reliance Industries. When the stockmarket shot up yesterday, I put a sell order for ₹2999. RIL still had not crossed that level yet but by the end of the day, it had settled at ₹3021. Its market capitalization had gone above ₹20 lakh crores, something no other Indian company could do. I had 10 shares so I made ₹1000 profit. Today, the shares tanked ₹200 to close at ₹2793. The market cap has fallen well below ₹19 lakh crore.

I tried to buy some shares when the market had plunged but my orders were rejected. Contrary to Amit Shah's pre-election claims, stocks had crashed so much on June 4th that both NSE and BSE had halted transactions in several scrips (without any announcement) to prevent a history-making slide.

Indian banking sector collapse imminent because of Adani group

Adani stocks performed the worst and lost 18% of their market value. Unless they can borrow more money from government banks, this highly leveraged group is destined to fail. Their return on capital employed (ROCE) is less than the cost of borrowed capital. No wonder that SBI stock also went down today. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and other private/governmet banks also have serious exposure to Adani group companies. They better stop lending to Adani group now and limit their losses. LIC must also exit from Adani group stocks. Else, they will all be routed by the market. Modi is definitely going to jail if banks fail because of Adanis.

Bye bye, FIIs

Coalition governments tend to make FIIs nervous. FIIs tend to act like a herd. Whether they buy or sell, there is always a scramble. The prospect of a humbled Modi government precariously hanging in balance will make FIIs stay away. This will be good for the Indian stockmarket. Good riddance. In a month or so, the stockmarket will return to its usual rhythm. Indian institutional investors such as mutual funds, SIPs, EPFO and LIC will bring in regular inflows into the market and the market will be ascendant, perhaps more slowly and with less wild swings. These local investors can handle the rigours of Indian politics.

Reforms

Reform-agenda journalists can mourn all they want. Modi has been in power for a decade now and these grifters want more ‘reforms’? Modi's new coalition partners are bringing their own ‘reforms’. These pro-India reforms to undo Modi's pro-crony and pro-globalist reforms are exactly what the country needs. Jai coalitions! And, Jai federalism!

My prediction

This third term of Modi will not last a full five years. There will be early elections.